Tuesday, October 13, 2015

As LNG conference for BC Arrives, world picture changes dramatically

As the LNG in BC industry gathers in Vancouver this week for three days of networking and updates on the state of the industry in Canada, some notes from the world stage might make for some fascinating discussions away from the public presentations.

The conversation for the most part might be focused on a  report from BloombergBusiness last week, which offered up some startling observations related to anticipated completion rates for projects proposed world wide.

With the Bloomberg piece noting that of the 90 LNG proposals currently making their way through various stages of development world wide, only 5, that's Five LNG projects worldwide are expected to cross a finish line.

The forecast for Canada from Bloomberg is even less promising, with the Business portal citing Jeffrey Currie, a commodities forecaster at the New York trading company Goldman Sachs and company as suggesting that none of the 20 Canadian proposals may see a final construction period, based mainly on environmental opposition issues.

Twenty more terminals are planned for Canada, according to Energy Aspects, including the Kitimat project proposed by Chevron Corp. and Woodside Petroleum Ltd. in British Columbia. The higher costs associated with projects there, in part because of environmental opposition, makes it even less likely that they’ll be built, Jeffrey Currie, head of commodities research at Goldman Sachs & Co. in New York, said in a Sept. 24 interview. -- An Excerpt from an October 8th article in BloombergBussiness 

The full Bloomberg article can be reviewed here.

And as if on cue, some of the other locations in the world where LNG was once considered the boom to come, are now scaling back or abandoning their plans. Australia is one of Canada's main rivals in the race for LNG and a nation which has already seen some footprints of the industry put in place.

With seven plants set to come on stream in the short term, the South Pacific nation has found some success with it's LNG strategy, however even down under the LNG industry is starting to feel some of the pain from cutbacks from the world's energy companies.

With large scale projects being considered for deferral or cancellation. The website LNG Global follows the industry with some in depth coverage, some of their links to a range of international reviews can be found below, with many of the articles focusing on Australia.

October 12 -- LNG projects go from bonanza to break-even
October 11-- Need for LNG plants debated
October 10 -- Projects falter as LNG's promise falls short
October 9 -- 85 of 90 planned LNG export terminals unnecessary, report says
October 8 -- Jobs go at Wheatstone LNG

As has been the case over the last year or so, the fluctuation in the oil industry is the main cause for all the uncertainty in the LNG industry, as the majority of the proponents, made up of some of the world's largest oil companies look to reduce the impact from the decline in oil prices in the last eighteen months.

Global situations that may yet have some impact on the plans for the Provincial government when it comes to its LNG strategy, as well as for Northwest area municipalities that seem to have put a lot of their faith in a string of LNG terminals to change the economic climate for the region.

For a review of the latest developments for many of those Northwest LNG proposals see our archive page here.

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