Thursday, March 21, 2024

Spring slump for BC NDP, BC United as BC Conservatives find spike in polling trends

BC Conservative leader John Rustad continues
to find a good response for the party's message of late

The Rise of the BC Conservative Party continues to make for a political theme to watch in British Columbia, with the latest polling data from one recent survey indicating that the party led by John Rustad continues to gain defectors from the former BC Liberals, now BC United.

From the data of the most recent release from Polling Canada, Rustad and his BC Conservatives are now just eight percent off the pace of the BC NDP, with the government losing 8 percent during the most recent sampling.

The concerns for David Eby however, aren't as large as those for BC United leader Kevin Falcon who if the Polling Canada results are an indication; continues to see support slide away with the BC United team down to 15 percent in the polling down 19 percent from the last sampling.

There is of course a lot of time between March and the Fall, with an entire Spring Session for the government to fine tune its blue print towards the fall election period.

Not to mention, that the Polling BC results are somewhat askew from other polling data. 

Angus Reid has a much better result for the BC NDP, noting of 43% support for the party, with the BC Conservatives and BC United locked in a tight fight for the right of centre vote with 22 Percent each,  the Greens remain consistent at 10 percent.

However, while the Angus Reid results may soothe some nerves at the NDP HQ, a theme coming out of their polling suggests that 51% of those who responded to their survey say it's time for a change in government.

338 Canada last took the political temperature of the Province in February and their data was more towards the leanings of the recent Angus Reid poll, than that of Polling BC.

The narrowing of the gap between the Eby led NDP and a rising BC Conservatives and the ongoing struggles for the Falcon led BC United to connect with what was once its base, will all be elements that will make for a summer season ahead where political and election campaign planning, will dominate over vacation planning.

The continued success for the reborn BC Conservatives and what seems to be a well received message,  is likely to mean that the NDP  will be pivoting somewhat away from its attention towards BC United, and putting more focus on the policies that the Conservatives are putting forward. 

All while hoping that the still at odds factions to the right remain fractured heading into the fall vote.

More notes on the local political scene from the Legislature can be reviewed through our archive here.

Further items of note related to news from Victoria can be fond through our political blog D'Arcy McGee.


  1. Election day is October 19th 2024.
    When will BC United and the B.C. Conservatives announce candidates for this riding?

  2. Honestly I think an independent in the north coast riding would be pretty powerful. The provincial election will be so close an independent may be the swing vote. Guaranteed they've already penciled in an ndp riding here. Think about it.

    1. The election will only be close if the right isn’t split.
      The local ER crisis might make someone get angry enough to step up and take a run at the incumbent.
      It might also make Rupert voters demand change and show up to vote.

    2. I think unless the health budget increases by a minimum of 20% so BC can offer bigger incentives for health care professionals to work here we’re not going to see an improvement. What else is there that hasn’t been tried to attract more doctors and nurses? The health budget is a huge chunk of the overall budget.

    3. Here’s a crazy idea,
      Show class, have pride, display character.
      Maybe then recruitment and retention of professionals to Prince Rupert will take care of itself.

  3. Independents tend to get shut out of committees where much of the legislative work takes place, and they have difficulty being recognized at question period.