Monday, August 19, 2019

Early polling data still give NDP the nod for holding Skeena-Bulkley Valley; but Conservatives are making some inroads

We may still have some two months to go before we cast our ballots in the 2019 General Federal Election, but as the final few days our of summer retreats begin to wind down, the polling data is showing the election season starting to heat up.

Over the last few weeks, 338Canada, which tracks polling trends across Canada has included its latest data from Skeena-Bulkley Valley as part of a weekly review of where the voters say they are parking their votes in the lead up to election day.

For NDP nominee Taylor Bachrach, the latest results are still delivering a positive result, though Conservative Claire Rattée can also find some solid trends to work with as the campaign moves into high gear following Labour Day.

The projections for Popular Vote offer up a glimpse of the difference between the candidates, with Mr. Bachrach currently holding a 6.5% margin at 36.5 percent over Ms. Rattée 30.5 per cent capture though it should be noted that the numbers do come with a plus or minus marker of 7.3% and 6.6% respectively.

The Liberals and Greens remain further back in the pack, at 15.7% and 13.5% respectively, while the newest of Canadian Political Parties, the Peoples Party of Canada, still has some work to do to try and resonate across the vast expanse of the Northwest, with this weeks results offering them 3.7% of the popular vote.

Some of the recent polling advances for the Conservatives caught the attention of some high profile candidates, with Alberta MP Michelle Rempel noting the success that Ms, Rattée has had so far, and making it a rallying call for members to help keep the Conservative campaign rolling in the Northwest.

Ms. Rempel is no doubt hoping to be splashing some Blue Paint across the entire Northern half of the map of British Columbia by October 21st, with the Tory candidate in Skeena-BV looking to join the three other Conservatives in heading to Ottawa as part of a Northern Block, with three of the four riding's clearly remain Strongholds for the Party as of this weekends' numbers.

However, before everyone starts booking halls for a victory party, the 338Canada data for this week did offer some notes to keep all of that Conservative enthusiasm in check just a bit (or motivate their workers just a little bit more). 

With the riding still considered one of the safest of NDP seats in the nation and likely to stay in the hands of the party as we head to election day.

As for the National view, the mid month data indicates that while the Conservatives are rising in the Popular vote, they may still fall just a bit short on seat counts and finish second behind the Liberals. 

If the numbers were to hold that would make for the prospect of a Minority government for Prime Minister Trudeau on October 22nd and the need to seek out some friends on the left of he political spectrum to retain the government side of the Commons.

The latest seat projection does make for a pretty strong reality check for the NDP which looks to see its current seat total cut in half if the data proves correct come October. 

For the Liberals the October vote could herald a significant drop of 25 seats from current levels. 

The Conservatives would stand to see the largest increase in seats, while the Greens may see a few additional faces though still in single digits.

The fledgling People's Party of Canada, will seemingly be left outside of the House of Commons looking in, at least until the next election, which in Minority situations could be not too far off the horizon.

It should however be remembered that in politics, as many have seen in the past, leads can vanish pretty quickly, subject to the controversies of the day and how the candidates address them. 

The findings for 338 Canada for mid August, may provide a very different snapshot come the weekend prior to the October vote, making for what should be some fascinating campaigning  over the next eight weeks, both nationally and across Skeena Bulkley Valley.

The methodology that 338Canada uses can be explored here.

You can keep up with some of the campaign themes of Skeena-Bulkley Valley through our Election archive page here.

To view the most recent blog posting of the day, click here.

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