Friday, October 16, 2020

Polling from post leader's debate shows John Horgan and NDP in comfortable lead

Polling data released today should bring a smile to
John Horgan's face, with the premier holding a significant
lead over his rivals in the BC election campaign

It's been a week of woe for BC Liberal leader Andrew Wilkinson, who has spent much of the week issuing apologies on behalf of some of his candidate pool and in one case accepting the resignation of one following some eyebrow raising comments related to contraceptives.

Today, things continued to skew the wrong way for the Liberal leader, with the first results of this week's leadership debate indicating he did not resonate well with the public that viewed the event.

So far, and with time fast running out, the campaign launch from the BC Leader is starting to call to mind some of the more spectacular moments of the BC Political past. 

Harkening back to the days of Rita Johnston or Bob Skelly, former leaders who had some stumbles that in the end did not deliver them to the office of the Premiership.

In a report from the Angus Reid Institute, the pollsters data provides a glimpse of the political landscape with just eight days to go before the General Voting day of the 24th.

For Horgan, the anger from the public over having to go to the polls seems to have diminished somewhat, with the NDP currently holding a sixteen percent lead over the Liberals when it comes to voter intention. 

The NDP the choice of almost half those surveyed at 49%, while the Liberals trail significantly at 33%, the BC Green Party checks in at 14%, while other parties claim five percent of the popular support.

Polling data from the Angus Reid Institute

Things go from bad to worse for Mr. Wilkinson when the three main leaders are compared, with the Premier the most popular at 54%. 

Ms. Furstenau who is making her leadership debut in this campaign has found a surge to 46% support, largely from her debate pefromance, while the Liberal leader is currently noted as having 24 percent of the voters who were surveyed.

As the Angus Reid Institute noted the voters have two streams of motivation in mind as they prepare to vote.

As the province enters this last week of the campaign, voters are motivated equally by blocking the party they dislike (52%) versus a party they truly support (48%).

However, should the current trends hold, the NDP may very well get the majority that they have been calling for in recent months, with half the voters stating a preference for the leadership of Mr. Horgan.  

While personally popular it seems, Ms. Furstenau's Green party has not seen much improvement in dedicated support from before the election; something which would suggest little chance towards taking a few seats away from the NDP and that could be enough to secure the Majority status for the NDP come next Saturday night.

You can review the full report from the Angus Reid Institute here.

To review some of the local themes in the campaign to date see our archive page here.

A wider overview of the provincial campaign is available from our political blog D'Arcy McGee and our Victoria Viewpoints feature.

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