Few surprises, probably less movement in voter intentions from Tuesday debate

The three leaders of BC's main political parties
took part in the only debate for the 2020 provincial election
(screen shot from GlobalBC broadcast)

If there was one consensus by the end of Debate Night in BC on Tuesday, it's most likely that Shachi Kurl is a very skilled moderator and that her traits of being firm and patient would have made her a very good High School teacher. 

Ms. Kurl showcased her skills in keeping the three leaders in check from their excesses, her hosting duties on the night providing for a fast paced and informative opportunity to learn more about those who wish to govern the province..

For the most part there were few surprises through the evening, the two opposition leaders noting from the start that we all really shouldn't have been viewing the debate on Tuesday, if not for John Horgan and his craven quest for power ... or words to that effect.

With that expected talking point out of the way early, a string of expected themes covering a range of issues and concerns came forward through the course of the ninety minute forum.

Listening to Liberal leader Andrew Wilkinson, one might get the impression that this current Liberal party isn't related to that other collective under the banner that ran BC for much of the last few decades. 

All of the woes for the province that he put at the feet of the NDP seemingly new creations, though we imagine most realize that areas of housing, transportation, environmental issues and themes of reconciliation all are files that have a long history of disappointing results from the past.

For his part, Mr. Horgan never really delivered a convincing argument that there was a pressing need to take us to the polls during a pandemic, he rattled off some of the NDP programs that have been in place during these last nine months. 

The gist of his commentary that for the most part we're voting now to continue with the familiar NDP announcements; rather than take a chance on whatever measures the Liberals may have in mind for pandemic times and beyond the virus.

At times, Mr. Horgan for his part seemed surprised that some of the inconsistencies in NDP themes of past and current industrial projects would be of interest to anyone; with Site C, TransMountain Pipeline and the LNG Canada project in Kitimat all making for some conversation topics and put the government somewhat on the defensive.

With both the Liberal and NDP leaders focused on their own election playbooks, Green Leader Sonia Furstenau found some room to first introduce herself to voters, being just four weeks on the job, as well as to highlight just how much of a different approach she would be bringing to the Legislature. 

She deftly tossed aside the notion that this was an election that had to be called, frequently correcting the NDP leader on how he had perceived the waning days of the last Legislature session. 

The Green leader noting how the Greens had viewed the last few months of governance and their shared arrangements as a process that had worked quite well.

Her performance offered up an indication that the new leader will make a fairly formidable opponent in the Legislature chamber, while she was also effective at putting forward the key elements of the Green Party policy book.

And on a key question of racism and reconciliation, she provided for the most sure footed responses, reflecting  both personal themes and what is the Green party consensus on the issues. The topic one which both Wilkinson and Horgan seemed to stumble somewhat on, their comments requiring the need for some post debate damage control.

Overall however, there most likely will be little movement in the polling and in eleven days the vote count as well.  

The NDP went into this campaign with a significant lead and nothing from Tuesday's debate probably is going to dig too deep into that support.  

The Liberals needed to land some strong punches in the forum, but with a leader who at times was on the defensive from some electoral mis-steps in recent weeks, Mr. Wilkinson never really put much pressure on Mr. Horgan.

Ms. Furstenau achieved her goal of ensuring that her party remains part of the discussion on the way to election night, however the cold reality for the Greens is that while they could possibly snare an additional seat or two in the Legislature from her performance,  they won't be forming a government. 

The numbers are not there and they still remain more of a curiosity in the province, as opposed to a political force.

For them to come out of October 23rd in a strong position will require pretty much a status quo vote total as to where we are at the moment. 

Meaning another shot at framing legislation from the winner of the vote through a Minority government situation, the irony is that if they find success on election night it most likely comes from an NDP riding, which gives the Liberals a glimmer of hope for a return to governance.

Though the Wilkinson team probably shouldn't get their hopes up too high, debate night did not deliver much in the way of a game changing moment. 

While he was wearing the target  for much of the night, Premier Horgan did not suffer any serious troubles that should be long lasting to October 23rd.

For those viewing at home, (well those who could, as many areas of BC were without power last night owing to a southern windstorm) the ninety minute session was a welcome change from the political dialogue we have seen from our neighbours to the south.

That thanks to moderator Kurl  who ensured that the focus remained on the issues, providing British Columbians with their best unvarnished measuring stick yet as to what the candidates have to offer.

You can review the event from a range of sources, one option comes from GlobalBC which we offer below for those who may have missed the only opportunity to measure the candidates head to head to head.

For a look at how the observers of the BC political scene viewed the night, see our Tuesday Victoria Viewpoints archive page from our Blog D'Arcy McGee.

More notes on the 2020 election campaign can be reviewed here.